Pandemic Politics and Economics

[Pippedydeadeye]

Red, I think fit and have done since DPP days, so I call dibs.

[emma_p]

Oh dear. No

[Pippedydeadeye]

I put a poster of him up in the office and then took it down after my Tory colleague had seen it, but now I wish I hadn’t. Can anyone send me a Keir poster?

[Bat Macdui]

Finally, Starmer, do we think fit or what? I think quite fit but with possible coffee breath.

No. Disclaimer: not representative of the majority. Wouldn't kick David Lammy out of bed though.

[Turtle Bean]

I love David Lammy so much. I bet he would be a lovely husband but quite strict due to integrity.

[Pippedydeadeye]

He used to go out with June Sarpong, didn’t he?

Alastair Campbell is being amazing on Twitter at the moment.

[Ruby]

If you can bear a bit of Boris/Jesus imagery (and you haven't used up your free articles) then this is quite a good piece, which lays out possible timescales. It's also interesting that the public have been better behaved than the government anticipated;

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... -6txf6m8fd

[Ruby]

I think Labour are currently in a difficult position. They can't be seen to be too critical of the government but, at the same time, we are possibly the worst hit country per capita - Labour don't want to be complicit.

[smalex]

I've used up my free times articles. That's interesting that we're being better behaved than expected. It's kind of what I feel when I look around, people have been way more diligent than I expected.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/maga ... ebate.html

I read this which I found interesting. It's what I wanted to start hearing about- experts in their fields discussing the implications of all this. It's obviously written from a US slant but it touches on so many things we've discussed here.

[Luce]

I'm not too surprised that we're all behaving better than expected - I think the expectations are low!

The future deaths caused by this lockdown are alarming. I fully understand that potential 150k deaths is harder to take seriously than 20k deaths happening actually now...but god, it has to be considered doesn't it? The deaths caused by the austerity/tanked economy combo should be enough. Let alone suicides. For all the country has been doing trying to raise awareness about mental health in the last couple of years, you'd think we'd take that more seriously. People with gardens are expected to put up and shut up.

Looking at NZ etc if seems increasingly like the fault here does not lie with the complainers or those struggling with the rules etc. It seems that if we'd started all this much earlier, we could have afforded some mistakes from rule confusion.

[Bat Macdui]

I think Labour are currently in a difficult position. They can't be seen to be too critical of the government but, at the same time, we are possibly the worst hit country per capita - Labour don't want to be complicit.

I thought this looking at Keir the other day shying away from direct criticism. It is such a fine line to walk. Going in strident when so many people are fully on with the Boris He Is Risen, have recently voted for him and are raw from Brexit isn't going to help. He needs to be ceaseless and detailed and forensic on PPE and testing though. He's doing a good job of softly softly with economic support, too.

I think a key issue we have with reducing impact of lockdown/ slow re opening etc is testing. We're just not doing it. We don't seem to have the capacity coming on board. So whilst we can compare against other European countries starting to re-open, we are miles behind doing it as safely. Then when you get to testing you open up the whole hugely sticky issue of your data and the government. If they roll out an NHS contact tracing app then use of that is going to be so so low. I'd be thinking long and hard about giving my data to Dominic Cummings, for example. Even South Korea, where people are more on board with management via tech has had huge issues with people who are supposed to be in quarantine going out and just leaving their mobile phones at home.

[smalex]

Testing is absolutely so vital and it scares me how far behind we are.
We talked about data on the other thread and I get it but don't know how to balance the risk of handing over all our data vs objecting to it and not allowing it to be a tool in the way we try and bring back some normalcy.
Economically can we potentially furlough the economy at the rate it's at for 18months or however long a vaccine takes? Even if we plausibly could and still have money to stimulate the economy when it can safely open up (which i doubt), developed countries would need to be able to do the same for the rest of the world or millions of people are going to starve. Was it a leader in india who said last week that if the poor didn't die of CV they'd die of starvation? If its Give over your data, accept a large ongoing CV death toll because you can't afford not to send everyone back to work or accept neither and allow the world economy to collapse?

But yeah. The government needs to be absolutely hammered on testing. Obviously for the NHS first but for all of us because every single strategy for getting out of this which isn't devastating seems to rely on it, and contact tracing.

[Bat Macdui]

We talked about data on the other thread and I get it but don't know how to balance the risk of handing over all our data vs objecting to it and not allowing it to be a tool in the way we try and bring back some normalcy.

I honestly don't know the answer to this either. But I am damn well not giving over my data on an NHS app based on self identification of symptoms and not related to any testing as all of that is massive bollocks. And then this is further complicated by the fact that there just isn't enough of an evidence base on immunity yet anyway. This article is handy.

We don't have an accurate antibody test. We don't know how long immunity might last. And we don't know that even if antibodies stop you from becoming ill whether they are enough to stop you harbouring the virus and spreading it to others.

Obviously the answer to any question on the economy is we overthrow capitalism whilst we're in lockdown. Less glib, there could be a way out economically looking beyond how we (globally) currently operate to a green, socialist new deal that doesn't work the way we traditionally work. But that won't happen.

[Kenickie]

The testing thing is crazy. Just as a small example, my brother is back in China. When you arrive there now, you have to quarantine, and everyone gets tested at the beginning and the end. Vs when he did quarantine here and had to fight to just get tested at the end.

[Ella77]

I won't be touching any of those apps with a bargepole.

[cluefree]

How are people with gardens expected to put up and shut up? The same exercise rule applies to everyone. Having a garden on top of that is a massive privilege.

It seems that testing is the key thing, doesn’t it? Why can’t we get our shit together with it?

I’m very worried about the Saint Boris effect. I have a few friends who have already surprised me by saying how much in support of him they are. There are worryingly few voices pointing out that the NHS was already on its fucking knees because of that malignant shitfunnel and his merry band of fuckweasels. (Obvs I am glad he survived but I can’t bear this hero worship).

Labour have a really tough job on their hands after this. (Because it was always going to be so easy for them before. )

[cluefree]

Also Bats I would like to thank you for helping me follow this sensibly.

[smalex]

If testing were ramped up and a coherent policy (also adopted by countries I've a little more faith in than our own) which involved data tracking was proposed that avoided an on going huge death toll from CV and/or devastating collapse of the world economy then I'd agree to it, I think. Theres a huge amount of ifs and buts in that though and I don't expect theyll be satisfied.

I have fantasies where everything is rebuilt, but better, more equity of wealth and real determination to pursue solutions to climate change. But yeah. It seems like a wild fantasy. As the NYT article said, after the depression the US got the new deal but Europe got Hitler.

[Bat Macdui]

I really think it's way too early to call how Labour and the Tories are going to fare when we hit anything that might measure that - delayed local elections, a GE. We are so very early days and by the time we get to any point when we're queuing 2 metres apart for a polling station perceptions may have shifted. Demographics will definitely have shifted. And young people will be looking at a deeply unpromising future. The major major problem Labour have is, as ever, the media. Trumpeting Boris Is Risen above PPE and testing. BUT. Then there's another factor that the media is also massively struggling. There's a few of those kamikaze jack in a box boomers* still going out for their papers daily, but people aren't buying news. The media demographics are changing. I'm almost on the verge of subscribing to the Guardian. If someone could tell me I'd have a job after May I might.

So really impossible to call. Except, added, I really don't know how any of you can fancy Keir. He looks potato-ey.

*TM, Clueffers,

[cluefree]

I can never forget how somebody once described him as looking like someone had ironed Gordon Ramsay.