The Mock Turtle

cluefree wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:40 amHow are people with gardens expected to put up and shut up? The same exercise rule applies to everyone. Having a garden on top of that is a massive privilege.

Of course it is. My niece (S) is pregnant, and also has a three year old, F. S takes F with her on an exercise walk in the park, but it is extremely difficult to keep her 2 metres away from others, so she doesn't do it every day. She gets tired, too (her pregnancy is difficult), and feels like she shouldn't be sitting down to rest in the park, and anyway, F wouldn't happily sit still if she did.

They moved about 18 months ago to a house with a garden, and she can't believe how lucky she is to have it, so that F can at least run about in there and get some fresh air. If they had stayed in the flat they lived in before, she would have been cooped up indoors. They are looking forward to picnics in the summer, too, which would be impossible to do without a garden. I can't imagine how she must be feeling about the birth, never mind the logistics of keeping a 3 year old occupied as it is - with no outside space it would be unthinkable.

I don't know about the testing thing either, apart from the logistics of getting people back to work (and making profits for shareholders etc) being complicated further. Obviously if someone is tested positive they can't go back yet, so it might suit the government for us not to know. TC's assessment has a depressing ring of truth too, but unless they are hoping that a lot of people will be positive and asymptomatic that will all come out in the wash sooner or later.

Are they really expecting to have a vaccine soon? I read in the Guardian that there could potentially be one earlier than 18 months, but it wouldn't have been tested properly, so are people really going to want to have it, particularly if they are in a high-risk group? Without one, aren't all the precautions we are taking just delaying the inevitable? We can't all stay indoors for 18 months, can we? Or is that the reality for all but really essential workers?

Topcat wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:36 pm It's because the huge numbers that would show up as positive this late into proceedings would utterly dam the government.

Would it though? Surely it would do the opposite? If you took the stats at the moment then you'd assume that CV19 has a mortality rate of about 13% which is clearly not the case. There seems to be a vague consensus around a mortality rate of no more than 1% so if around £1.1m were found to have tested positive that would be good news (or at least in line with current assumptions). And if it were more, it would mean that CV is less deadly than assumed.

Morganna wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:42 pm Are they really expecting to have a vaccine soon? I read in the Guardian that there could potentially be one earlier than 18 months, but it wouldn't have been tested properly, so are people really going to want to have it, particularly if they are in a high-risk group? Without one, aren't all the precautions we are taking just delaying the inevitable? We can't all stay indoors for 18 months, can we? Or is that the reality for all but really essential workers?

A September virus would be amazing but I can't imagine a government that can't get its act together on testing (and I do think it's chaos rather than conspiracy which, in its own way, is even more depressing) to be able to manufacture and distribute a vaccine in anything like the kind of timeframe needed.

No, nor can I, which is why I am wondering if we (or those of us who can, anyway) will have to carry on wfh or whatever we are doing now for bloody ages. I might be missing something (probably am), but if there is no way of halting this, what's the point in staying in and observing all the social distancing etc, if we are all going to get it as soon as we go back to normal anyway?

I also think it's chaos rather than conspiracy. It's the accuracy of the instant tests that are the problem. And also procurement - the government are trying to buy tests at the same time as all the other countries. We don't have the lab capacity - or we haven't organised the lab capacity - to test lots of people now. It's a similar problem with PPE - all these things are made in other countries that are now either banning export or who have closed factories. We don't make the tests or the PPE in this country.

That's why [to Morgs] I think the 'enhanced shielding' -probably with mass gatherings, pubs and restaurants remaining closed - is the route that will inevitably be taken. It will be an extremely hard sell though!

To give them chance to make more hospital capacity, ventilators, PPE etc so that they can manage it without collapsing. That seems to be going well.

I don't believe the vaccine being nearly ready thing but it's increasingly looking like it's the only way out and that we won't be allowed back out till it's ready. So next Autumn ish by the time air travel is allowed again? No point letting us back out only for it to come back again.

Surely air travel will be the last thing to come back? Unless we have quarantine at both ends, it would be madness to let people come and go from other countries.

I've just been reading this. It is not a cheery read (about the virus in India). Why would we let people go there and come back? Or why would countries that have got on top of it better than we have let us go there?

My life won't go back to normal until I can get on a bus or train again, and I really can't imagine feeling comfortable with that for a very long time.

I can’t either.

I was reading something about China where they have ~100 new cases, nearly all are from people returning to the country, lots of people have been coming in over the Russia/China border and several locals from a particular transit city on that border have also been infected. Travel in and out of the country seems to be a particular risk.

I cannot imagine allowing international air travel (for leisure) again in a hurry. The idea sounds insane.

Ruby wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:39 pm I also think it's chaos rather than conspiracy.

I am going with chaos, incompetence and austerity. None of that cabinet has any proper leadership experience, they were all chosen for blind loyalty to the Boris Brexit cause. There's not much actual competence either. And they are all brand new to immensely complex briefs. I mean, it irks me to praise Jeremy Hunt but all his shouting at the beginning of this was because he'd been Minister for Health for so long that he knew what he was talking about when it came to pandemic. Have they muzzled him now? I haven't seen him on telly yelling TEST for ages. Then you have the fact we basically have no public health function anymore. Public Health England has a budget and a remit for about 3 drugs are bad m'kay posters a year. We have no infrastructure to organise testing on. To buy it. NHS procurement is a shambles. Same issue. No people to get things done. Just zero resource so even if Hancock says do it, it can't be done as there is no way of getting it done, fast.

Yes yes and yes.

Hunt was not the most awful Health Secretary in the end. Spending actual time in the job is what helped achieve that.

Morganna wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:49 pm Surely air travel will be the last thing to come back? Unless we have quarantine at both ends, it would be madness to let people come and go from other countries.

Exactly, it's why I'm telling myself no air travel till at least autumn 2021 - I just can't imagine it will be running again until the majority of the world's population is vaccinated. Arguably it should have been one of the first things shut down. People are still arriving in the country today from countries with significant levels of the virus.

The 100k tests per day by the end of April...is that definitely not happening? It was all a big talking point last week or whenever it was.

Ah, 2021. I thought you meant September/October of this year.

Ah no, not a chance.

R has been trying to rebook us to fly to London/Edinburgh in July. Everyone is telling him it's not going to happen, but he's hoping they're all wrong. I feel sorry for him. :sad:

It is fascinating what some of the other European countries are doing as 'release valve' and relaxation of lockdown. Guardian article

Bookshops, laundries, stationers and children’s clothes stores reopened on a trial basis in some regions of Italy.

I foresee a sudden rush of people who really need a good paperback and a new notebook. I am assuming there's a cultural explanation for stationers, as I can't see the UK suddenly sanctioning Paperchase above anything else. Maybe they're more like newsagents?

Austria also began loosening restrictions, allowing public parks, small shops and DIY and gardening supply stores to reopen.

Can you imagine the crush at those garden centres that have a Seasalt and a Mountain Warehouse and The Works?

Also, some of the things reopening across Europe are things we've not shut. So whilst it is interesting to look at how others test this, it's also possible our May could see more strict instructions before we move to reopening.

I hear Trump has suspended payments to the WHO. Helpful.