Covid-19

[Epponnee Rae]

Current evidence suggests that covid-19 mortality rate could be in the range of 1-10%. A crude look at the confirmed case and deaths (largely based on the data from Chinese cases - helpful as there are so many, suggests it might be in the region of 1-3%. But also that was in a system that has good capacity/resources but was rapidly overwhelmed due to a slow initial response. Italy needs to move fast to avoid a similar outcome - fortunately it is much less populous and living conditions are typically less crowded (for an airborne transmission route that can possibly survive on surfaces for a while, that’s important).

The flu epidemic of 1918 (‘Spanish flu’) had an estimated mortality rate of about 2.5% (it’s hard to estimate, you can find a range of estimates). Ebola has a case fatality rate of about 50%. Malaria mortality can be up to 20%. But much of this really depends on the response to the infection and the availability of appropriate treatment. Also, none of the bare estimates on mortality tell you about the morbid disease and what happens to moderate/severe cases that ultimately recover, either in terms of the duration of that illness and it’s effects, and longer term health implications (if any).

[Zoomer]

I predict a sudden mass outbreak of TC's favourite song. )

[Squirrel]

There was a BBC Beyond Today episode about this.

[Little My]

Part of my desire for avoidance of COVID-19 isn't just the illness aspect but the sudden potential for being quarantined somewhere. FUCK. THAT.

[Luce]

I think I could survive a little quarantine if the conditions were just right If all four of us had to do it together at home then I think we might go mad.

[Zoomer]

Yeah, I'm ok with being quarantined, but not if my child is quarantined with me. Unless WHO suddenly start recommending that quarantined children should watch 10 hours of TV a day. Trying to keep her usefully occupied on a rainy weekend is bad enough.

[Rhodonite]

I wasn't too worried about it, until I saw Scibabe post about it on Facebook last night. D has been stressing since the first reports, but I don't dare tell him, that actually I'm getting a little concerned too.

She has said there no need to panic (yet!), but follow best practice for better handwashing etc etc.

[Starry]

I’m supposed to be in Paris next month for a few days, work have okayed the trip on the proviso that France doesn’t get hit by more Coronavirus cases.

[Kleio]

My Aunt lives in the yellow zone outside of Milan with some of her husbands family in the red zone.

All public buildings have been closed down (schools l, swimming pools, libraries, cinemas etc). If you need to attend the GP they are making everyone wait outside and only allowing one person in the building at a time. The shops are empty as people have panic bought and people are being encouraged not to congregate.

My cousin works in the local hospital and she is allowed to attend work but must wear a mask at all times.

Their family in the red zone aren’t self isolating as they haven’t come into contact but they may as well be. Most workplaces are shut with employees being asked to WFH if they can. The Government have assured people that they cannot be fired for staying at home and that wages will be paid.

I don’t think I’d be comfortable travelling there at the moment. Not because I am worried about catching it but because the situation there sounds stressful.)

[rosy]

I hope your family in Italy stay well, Kleio.

N doesn't cover Buxton except when she's on call, but with the school and the GP practice there being closed they've had a directive from the head of service to remind them about hand-washing and to be prepared to self-isolate if they come into contact with the person* there who has tested positive for Covid-19. To be honest I'm more worried about her flying to Iceland next weekend. Even on a small plane that's a lot of people all breathing the same recirculated air.

She is more worried about contracting it without realising it and passing it to me given my immuno-suppressed status.

*This person isn't being named which I think is right.

I am wondering about the F1 season, and later the Tokyo Olympics. Up to press the Australian GP is going ahead on 15 March, as are the races in Bahrain and Vietnam (despite the badminton tournament in Vietnam the week before being cancelled) but the Chinese GP on 20 April is postponed. It seems to me that if WHO get their arses into gear and declare a pandemic then it's incredibly irresponsible to be shipping hundreds of people around the world to race cars, although obviously I'd be gutted if the season was truncated or cancelled.

Japan only has a few cases as yet and they have until May to make a decision on the Olympics.

[FiveO'Clock]

N seems so sensible, I think she will be fine no matter what, and I understand her concern about passing it on. That's my main concern, despite having a significant history of pneumonia. What is your status that makes you more vulnerable? (of course, don't answer if it's private vs just something I haven't read before!)

I just watched one of our health professionals warning this is 20 times more deadly than the flu, which seems pretty worrying to me!

[Margo]

Apparently Boris Johnson was wandering around my local hospital at midnight last night... a few people have said they met him. I hope coronavirus isn’t there, although, if it was I can’t really see him wanting to be there?!

[smalex]

The Olympics are a nightmare. Imagine they have to cancel, all that investment and 7years of preparation. And all those athletes who've carefully honed 4yrs of training for that fortnight.

[Epponnee Rae]

What a shame it would be if Johnson was exposed Also that whole thing about him strategically disappearing from the public eye is interesting. Although probably for another thread.

[smalex]

Hes definitely purposely not associating himself directly with anything which is a negative story. And/or not giving himself the opportunity to fuck up in public.

[Figaro]

I don't think the virus itself is a huge threat, although we don't (as a country) have the capacity to deal with any increase in seriously ill people needing intensive care at present, so if we have large numbers of young healthy people who would potentially go to ITU and need things like ECMO support, then we would have an issue. At present it looks as if children are incredibly unlikely to get this in any serious sense, and that the main people who are dying are the very old and those with multiple comorbid health conditions, who generally don't tend to be suitable for intensive care or ECMO anyway, so although the press have picked up on this and are being very melodramatic and saying that we are going to sacrifice the elderly to save the young, really,we kind of do this anyway in that an intensive care admission is a horrible, painful, scary, distressing thing to put someone through, and you only do it if they have a decent chance of surviving, otherwise you are just prolonging their suffering and ruining their last few days.

But that aside the logistical and public health ramifications are potentially crippling. We don't have the capacity to swab tens of thousands of people. We don't have the ability to cope if every GP or A&E nurse or doctor who comes into contact with a potential case has to self isolate and stay off work for 2 weeks. We have the potential to lose huge numbers of staff, potentially on a recurrent basis. And given that, really, it isn't possible to self isolate within your own home, and the fact that many doctors and nurses are married to other doctors and nurses, and therefore generally the advice being given is that their partner also has to self isolate, we are looking at a potential situation where there are very few front line staff left to deal with all the day to day stuff which is not Covid 19. Which is much more of a problem.

PHE are not keeping up with developments - it took them far too long to add Italy to the list of countries to quarantine, and during that interim period where it was obvious there was a big outbreak there, patients who had been there and had potential symptoms were being told it was absolutely fine to go to A&E and sit in the waiting room, or go to the GP and sit in their waiting room. There are also currently huge numbers of people who have travelled to places which aren't on the relevant list but where there have been cases, who develop respiratory symptoms, and nobody really knows what to do with them. Generally their employers are telling them to go away and get tested, which is reasonable, but PHE aren't always willing to test them and are trying to send them to their GP or ED, potentially exposing dozens of others. It's just a disaster and is being very badly coordinated at present.

[Ella77]

I must admit that the plan of sending people to their GP to be tested seems potentially very stupid.

[ParisGal]

Over here you have to call the ambulance service, and definitely not go to GP or any other normal hospital type place. They take you to a designated hospital then, apparently. They've said already though that the plan would have to be adapted if numbers increase dramatically.

[Estrella]

Over here the guidance is to call ahead to the doctor or hospital and advise of your travel history/contact with potentially infected people/symptoms prior to presenting in person. The only cases we have over here are from that cruise ship, from a travel group who visited from Wuhan early on (and were isolated immediately) and I *think* from the initial evacuated (and held in quarantine) group from Wuhan. The travel ban into Australia from China has also been extended for a third time. I vacillate between utter panic about it all and being totally cool. I am also worried about something happening to someone close back in Scotland which would necessitate air travel as I’m keen to avoid that (or at least not have to expose my children to that).

[SunnyMum]

Yes, we got an email at work yesterday specifically saying NOT to go to the GP nor the hospital with any corona symptoms.
We were also told that we are not allowed to to travel (for work) to China, HK, Macao, Singapour, South Korea nor Northen Italy.
I've got a project on the go for a business delegation meeting in Hong Kong and Guangzhou (Canton) in October. So far it hasn't been cancelled (but I'm 100% it will be as it's got public funding on it and I doubt very much that the regional council will fund a trip that will end in isolation).