Covid-19

[Luce]

Second wave stuff, right - is that inevitable? Does anyone know how long lockdown would be for it to stop a second wave or is it coming no matter how we do this? If we did lockdown for 18 months, would there still be a second wave?

[Luce]

I wonder if the greater the affluence the greater the organic 'trust' in Government? It is all educated, affluent people here. All on the liberal scale and few people who I'd describe as activists.

[Ruby]

I think a second wave is definitely inevitable, but I think it's unlikely to be as bad as the first. I think we are possibly living with intermittent lockdowns for the next year or so. Easing and then lockdown again if the numbers rise too much. I worry about the effects of the cooler weather in winter - especially if people are really bored of lockdown by then.

[Derek Nimmo]

Obviously this is just anecdotal but I know someone who works for one of the large consulting firms, and apparently they've been working on modelling which strongly suggests we'll have to have a 5 week lockdown around October time.

Thanks for correcting me Rebs, I sincerely hope the UK purchase of the Roche tests goes through!

[Mountain Goat]

I think it's likely to be worse than it should be because we relaxed at such an early stage compared to other countries (and before that, the whole VE Day shebang/hot bank holiday weekend). I mean, who knows. But we seem to be at more risk of a big second wave than more cautious countries I think.

[Luce]

So which is better, do you reckon? A proper lockdown for another year or two (only way to avoid second wave?) or intermittent lockdowns meaning it goes on longer but might prevent an economic depression?

[Ruby]

I wonder if the greater the affluence the greater the organic 'trust' in Government? It is all educated, affluent people here. All on the liberal scale and few people who I'd describe as activists.

Well yes, there's definitely a case to be made about politicians and trust. It's difficult to square that with the fact that most working class people voted for Johnson though. Although obvs you have to factor in Corbyn & Brexit.

[Ruby]

I think we need an intermittent lockdown, but there's a lot of room within that to make catastrophic or over-cautious decisions.

[Luce]

I wonder if the greater the affluence the greater the organic 'trust' in Government? It is all educated, affluent people here. All on the liberal scale and few people who I'd describe as activists.

Well yes, there's definitely a case to be made about politicians and trust. It's difficult to square that with the fact that most working class people voted for Johnson though. Although obvs you have to factor in Corbyn & Brexit.

Absolute quagmire. I might do another sociology degree in 15 years just to unpick it.

[Derek Nimmo]

I don't think that we can afford (economically, psychologically) a full lockdown for the foreseeable - it would be far more detrimental in the longer term than corona itself.

[Ruby]

I am so fascinated by the whole thing in a weird detached way.

[Derek Nimmo]

Me too Ruby, I keep on thinking about future generations unpicking it in school essays. "Explain the causes of the mismanagement of the Corona Virus crisis of 2020 by the UK & USA" sort of thing.

[Luce]

I don't think that we can afford (economically, psychologically) a full lockdown for the foreseeable - it would be far more detrimental in the longer term than corona itself.

I feel this way too but then think, right, who do I know that I'm willing to sacrifice so the economy can recover and then I get very stuck. And if a full lockdown can't be maintained then what should we be doing instead? Exactly what we are doing by easing stuff slightly and opening schools? Or something completely different.

I bet the answer is testing.

[Mountain Goat]

I just think we needed to lockdown until we had full provision of PPE and a proper test, trace, isolate system so the resultant waves could be managed better, and then intermittent as necessary. Just like the grown up countries. I'm not advocating eternal lockdown.

I'm fascinated too, by personality type responses as well as sociodemographic responses. All of it.

[Mountain Goat]

Me too Ruby, I keep on thinking about future generations unpicking it in school essays. "Explain the causes of the mismanagement of the Corona Virus crisis of 2020 by the UK & USA" sort of thing.

Yes! I thought this enough about Brexit, but we're on a whole new level of essay now. Those poor kids.

[Derek Nimmo]

I bet the answer is testing.

Exactly, also tracing. I find it rather telling that whilst the first corona case was in Brighton, we have actually been hit very mildly down here and I'm convinced it's because at that point we still had tracing in place as standard policy. At some point in Feb / March it was abandoned and hey, whaddya know...pandemic lockdown ahoy.

[Luce]

What I am convinced of is that whatever this takes to fix this whole sorry mess is something that definitely could and should have happened right at the beginning. Which is so depressing.

[emma_p]

I agree Luce. I'm also saddened that there seems to be absolutely no desire to work together globally to try to fix this either.

[Topcat]

Even now they are lying about the testing.

[Ruby]

Exactly, also tracing. I find it rather telling that whilst the first corona case was in Brighton, we have actually been hit very mildly down here and I'm convinced it's because at that point we still had tracing in place as standard policy. At some point in Feb / March it was abandoned and hey, whaddya know...pandemic lockdown ahoy.

I think this is a good point. For example, no-one really knows how it got to Cumbria - as this was when the horse had already bolted - and now it's one of the worst affected areas.

I just think we needed to lockdown until we had full provision of PPE and a proper test, trace, isolate system so the resultant waves could be managed better, and then intermittent as necessary. Just like the grown up countries. I'm not advocating eternal lockdown.

Yes, this is my position. We need proper test & trace systems and that should enable us to keep the lid on the worst of it.

I think we're in for social-distancing in supermarkets etc. for a good while yet.